Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav lossis Lub Caij Ntuj Sov?
Mar 26, 2026|
Kev cuam tshuam ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas -Iran Tsov Rog ntawm Hlau thiab Nws Qhov Kev Cuam Tshuam Tom Ntej ntawm Kev Ua Lag Luam Hauv Lub Sij Hawm Tom Ntej
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm US -Iran tsov rog ntawm kev lag luam steel feem ntau nyob hauvnce nqi zog, cuam tshuam kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv, sib txawv hauv cheeb tsam xav tau, thiab nce kev nce nqi thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev loj hlob siab, uas yuav ntxiv cov qauv ntawmnce nqi, restructured export qauv, diverging khoom ua tau zoo, thiab intensified lag luam volatilitydhau 3 mus rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej.
I. Kev cuam tshuam ncaj qha thiab tsis ncaj ntawm cov hlau
1. Cov nqi tsim khoom: Ob lub siab los ntawm lub zog thiab kev xa khoom
Cov nqi zog: Iran tswj lub Strait ntawm Hormuz, los ntawm qhov uas ib ncig ntawm 20% ntawm ntiaj teb no crude roj thiab 30% ntawm seaborne LNG pass. Blockades los yog tsis sib haum xeeb yuav thawb Brent crude siab tshaj $ 100-110 ib chim thiab European natural gas nqi siab dua. Raws li lub zog siab heev- kev lag luam hnyav, steelmaking ntsib kev nce nqi roj thiab hluav taws xob,nce thoob ntiaj teb cov nqi tsim khoom steel los ntawm 5% -15%.
Cov nqi thauj khoom: Nrog rau kev thaiv strait thiab Hiav Txwv Liab tensions, thoob ntiaj teb shipping raug yuam kom reroute nyob ib ncig ntawm lub Cape of Good Hope.Seaborne freight nqi rau hlau yuav surge 2-5 zaug, nrog los ntawm kev nce siab hauv kev ua tsov rog kev pheej hmoo nyiaj pov hwm kev noj qab haus huv thiab kev xa khoom qeeb, tsav tsheb nce nqi xa tawm thiab kev pheej hmoo.
2. Kev Pabcuam Sab Nraud: Txwv Iranian cov khoom tsim tawm thiab rov tsim kho kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb
Iranian hlau: Iran tsim roughly 30 lab tons ntawm crude steel txhua xyoo thiab xa tawm txog 11 lab tons, feem ntau billets, ua rau nws yog ib tug tseem ceeb tsum rau Middle East thiab South Asia. Kev ua tsov rog yuav ua rau lub zog tsis ruaj khov, chaw nres nkoj thaiv, thiab kev cuam tshuam kev xa tawm,yuav luag nres Iranian hlau xa tawmthiab nthuav dav cov khoom lag luam hauv cheeb tsam rau ib nrab- cov khoom tiav.
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb: Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz tuav roughly 10% ntawm ntiaj teb no seaborne steel kev lag luam. Luv -Lub sij hawm kev lag luam cuam tshuam kev lag luam, kev txiav txim khov, thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm tau nce.
3. Demand Side: Pom tseeb Regional thiab Product Divergence
Middle East xav tau: Kev tsis sib haum xeeb cuam tshuam txog kev tsim vaj tsev thiab vaj tsev xav tau hauv Saudi Arabia, UAE thiab lwm lub tebchaws, ua rau tsis muaj zog thov rau rebar, hlau pas nrig, thiab cov hlau tiaj tus. Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam tub rog thiab tom qab- kev ua tsov rog rov tsim kho yuav txhawb kev xav tautshwj xeeb steel thiab structural steel.
Suav exports: Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm mus rau thaj av Gulf account rau ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm nws cov khoom xa tawm tag nrho. Luv -Lub sij hawm xa khoom xa tuaj cuam tshuam yuav cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam steel. Lub caij no, txo Iranian xa tawm tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsigSuav steel billetsnyob rau hauv tau txais kev sib koom ua lag luam nyob rau hauv Middle East thiab South Asia.
Kev thov thoob ntiaj teb: Cov roj nqi siab roj nqi nce thiab hnyav ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev siv, ua rautsis muaj zog tag nrho thoob ntiaj teb steel xav tau. Cov qauv kev txhawb nqa yog los ntawm kev ua tub rog, kev kho lub zog, thiab lwm yam kev tsim kho vaj tse.
4. Kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom: Diverging Strengths
Muaj zog sectors: steel tshwj xeeb rau kev siv tub rog, roj thiab roj pipeline steel, steel rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab steel billets.
Tsis muaj zog sectors: tiaj tus hlau (HRC, galvanized) thiab kev tsim kho cov khoom siv ntev uas cia siab rau Middle East xa tawm.
Nruab nrab sectors: domestic- taw qhia cov khoom siv ntev, stainless hlau, thiab cov kav dej steel.
II. Kev Ua Lag Luam cuam tshuam rau 3-12 Lub Hlis Tom ntej (Los ntawm theem)
1. Lub sij hawm luv luv (1–3 lub hlis): Heightened volatility, cost-tsav
Cov nqi hlau: Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev sib cog lus, steel nqi yuav yogyooj yim sawv tab sis nyuaj poob, nrog txwv upside vim tsis muaj zog thov, qhia ib tug qauv ntawm cov nqi siab thiab siab volatility.
Kev xa tawm: Suav xa tawm mus rau Middle East ntsib kev cuam tshuam thiab yuav hloov mus rau Hiav Txwv Liab, Mediterranean, thiab Southeast Asia.
Shipping thiab cov khoom muag: Cov nqi thauj khoom siab thiab kev ncua qeeb qeeb thoob ntiaj teb cov khoom lag luam hlau zom zaub mov.
Kev lag luam nyiaj txiag: Kev nce nqi nce kev cia siab ncua kev txiav tawm, ua rau cov khoom lag luam hloov pauv thiab cov khoom lag luam ntau dua.
2. Lub sij hawm nruab nrab (3-6 lub hlis): kev hloov kho, kev xav tau sib txawv
Tus nqi nruab nrab: Yog hais tias lub strait maj mam rov qhib dua thiab cov nqi roj yooj yim, steelmaking cov nqi yuav qis dua tab sis nyob twj ywm siab dua ua ntej - qib ua tsov rog.
Kev muab khoom rov qab: Iranian peev xwm thiab thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam chains maj mam kho, txhim kho ib nrab -cov khoom siv hlau tiav.
Demand divergence: Kev tsim kho steel tseem tsis muaj zog thaum cov hlau tshwj xeeb tseem muaj zog nyob nruab nrab ntawm cov kev tsim kho tshiab hauv Middle East.
Suav lag luam: Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev thov hauv tsev thiab cov qauv xa tawm zoo tshaj plaws, cov nqi steel hauv tsev kuj tseem muaj zog.
3. Lub Sij Hawm Ntev (6–12 lub hlis): Kev hloov pauv, kev pheej hmoo thiab lub sijhawm
Kev lag luam qauv: Middle East steel imports diversified mus rau Tuam Tshoj, Qaib ntxhw, thiab Is Nrias teb, tsa Tuam Tshoj txoj kev koom nyob rau hauv billets thiab ca steel.
Tus nqi siab dua: Ua kom muaj zog thiab cov nqi thauj khoom nyem steel kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig thiab ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig thiab qis - carbon hloov pauv.
Xav kom rov qab los: Post-kev ua tsov ua rog rov tsim kho dua tshiab tso tawm cov khoom siv hauv Middle East. Easing inflation thiab looser monetary txoj cai txhawb kev maj mam rov qab los ntawm kev tsim khoom thiab kev thov vaj tsev.
Kev lag luam txaus ntshai: Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntev tuaj yeem ua rau stagflation thiab tsis muaj zog hlau xav tau; kev txiav txim siab sai yuav ua rau kev lag luam rov qab mus rau qhov tseem ceeb.
III. Core Conclusion thiab Outlook
Kev lag luam hlau: Tshaj li 3 lub hlis tom ntej, cia siab tiasvolatility siab, tus nqi -tsav cov nqi, thiab cov khoom sib txawv. Tshaj li 6-12 lub hlis, kev txhim kho cov qauv thiab maj mam thov rov qab yuav tshwm sim, muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau Suav cov khoom xa tawm thiab cov khoom tshwj xeeb / lub zog steel.
Kev ua lag luam thoob ntiaj teb: Kev nce siab zog thiab cov nqi thauj khoom, kev nce nqi pheej yig, thiab kev loj hlob qeeb yuavnce volatility nyob rau hauv cov khoom thiab kev ncaj ncees. Safe-haven cov cuab tam, roj shipping, thiab tub rog kev lag luam chains yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig raws sij hawm.